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The Climate Curmudgeon's avatar

I enjoyed this piece, thank you for the research and especially for pointing out the innovation curve graph. That was an interesting way to look at the history of technology and energy.

I have a small issue with your using the concept of energy or material "transitions". I recently was introduced to Jean-Baptiste Fressoz, a French historian of science and technology, a Vaclav Smil type French data guru.

Fressove points out that with very few exceptions, the global use of energy and materials has been additive and and intertwined. As new energy sources appear and dominate they are supported by previous energy sources whose use Increases.

For example, wood was replaced by coal as the primary energy source, but timber use increased as it was used for mine cribbing, rail ties and oil and derricks.

The term energy transition was an invention of the nuclear age by nuclear proponents. We have not, and are not likely to see a "Green Energy Transition" any time soon as renewables have added to, not replaced, fossil fuels.

https://youtu.be/-AxsZtwIhFw?si=q8kzNEvxbmL_PmvB

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Dr John Mark Dangerfield's avatar

Makes perfect sense. I summarise it like this… 8 billion more making machines, increasing at 8,000 an hour, all wanting more. And that takes a lot of energy.

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